Saturday, June 16, 2012

Here's A Model For You Numbnuts





Awaiting the first reference to the Oilers following the Kings' model.

Take me out to the back 40 if you do, as my old man would say.

After every season the talking heads, most of them dummies, point to the Cup winner and say, there, there is the model that everyone should be following.

So when Anaheim and Boston win then teams should get big and tough and try and intimidate clubs. Never mind the big tough teams that flame out in the first round or never even make the playoffs because they can't skate or play hockey or don't have future hall of famers on their blueline.

Detroit wins? Fill the executive suite and manage by committee. Like the Leafs.

Chicago or Pittsburgh? Tank. You know, like the Islanders or Atlanta. Also ignore the fact that Chicago was terrible for almost two decades before just sneaking in as their window closed.

Have key guys on entry level contracts. Right? Makes sense. If your big guns are cheap (Getzlaf/Perry, Toews/Kane, the Pens stars) then you can surround them with proven and pricey quality. Its a good strategy except Boston only had Seguin on his entry level deal and he was a bit player last year and the Kings only had Quick. So you don't NEED guys on their entry level deals although I would agree that it makes things easier.

And on and on it goes.

After the Kings won, a commenter at Lowetide's had a checklist:

Franchise goaltender - just like Carolina, Chicago, Anaheim and the Penguins.

Franchise defenceman - again like Carolina. Also the Penguins.

Depth down the middle - this, more than any other, makes sense. But all of these Cup winners had depth at every position. I would rate centre as more important then the wing but you're not winning the Cup without quality and depth  on the flanks as well.

You want to know what you need to win the Cup, well, its a special little crazy obsession of mine. If you come here often then you know what that is.

Good players.

You can draft them or trade for them or sign them or pick them up on waivers but that's what you need. Good players and as many of them as you can amass.

The LA Kings second line was Dustin Penner, Mike Richards and Jeff Carter. Their second line.

This is what makes me crazy about the Edmonton Oilers and their style of management. They discard useful players constantly. I'm not going to list all of the ones tossed aside since June 19th 2006 because I'm afraid the enormity of it would crash the internet.

And I am sure you are tired of hearing about it.

But to win the Cup you need to get into a position where you can win it. We might mock San Jose and Vancouver and Calgary but every year recently (though obviously no longer for the Flames) these clubs made the playoffs and with good teams and from there all you can hope for is some luck and some good health and then who knows ...

Good players. Nick Schultz is a good player. He is also a guy who the Oilers might have picked up (or an equivalent) without giving up another good player in Tom Gilbert. Ryan Smyth is a good player and yet he may be out the door. Ales Hemsky is a good player and yet he was almost sent away. When Dustin Penner was moved the Oilers were lauded. Yesterday Dan Tencer called that trade 'highway robbery'. A top six forward on a Cup winner for two guys who have nothing under the belt yet. I like Klefbom a lot but its this attitude that reflects why the Oilers have been a league joke forever.

Good players. Get good players. That's all that matters.

25 comments:

David S said...

I don't have anything against Dan personally, but calling the Penner trade highway robbery says "my paycheque depends on me selling a tank job as a "rebuild". I guess he has to tow the company propaganda line, but stuff like that just makes him sound like The Iraqi Information Minister.

calgarysucks said...

I think you're looking at some of these players through rose-colored glasses. You're right about Schultz, we should have got more for Gilbert or traded someone else in exchange for Schultz. Ryan Smyth is 36 years old and ran out of gas midway through the season - and at this point it appears he is unwilling to both accept a reasonable contract and reduced role. Ales Hemsky is a good player but at this point he is injury prone - he may prove us wrong in that regard in the next 2 years but as of now that is what he is. Dustin Penner is a lazy SOB who only showed up on the ice when he felt like it - just because he had a good playoff run for the Kings doesn't mean he's magically learned how to play hockey. He just decided to show up because he saw a SC within his grasp. Next year he'll be playing on the 4th line again before you know it.

Chappy said...

Dustin Penner is a lazy SOB who only showed up on the ice when he felt like it - just because he had a good playoff run for the Kings doesn't mean he's magically learned how to play hockey

He didn't have a good regular season, this is true. Now he's talking about giving the Kings a 'hometown discount' to re-sign, and I'm still struggling to come to the fact that Edmonton's defence has just three NHL players on it.

David S said...

63 points in 09-10 and he was trending to over 50 in 10-11 before he got traded.

Lazy SOB. SO glad we ditched him for...what exactly did we get for him again? Yeah, I can't remember either.

That trade was the textbook definition of FAIL.

David S said...

@chappy - 2.5

Smid, Petry and Whitney (.5)

Chappy said...

Smid, Petry and Whitney (.5)

I factored Schultz in there somewhere.

calgarysucks said...

He didn't have a good regular season, this is true. Now he's talking about giving the Kings a 'hometown discount' to re-sign, and I'm still struggling to come to the fact that Edmonton's defence has just three NHL players on it.

Well good for them if he gives them a hometown discount - he'll still be overpaid when he leaves the task of making the playoffs to real NHL players and is biding his time on the 4th line. :)

Black Dog said...

calgarysucks - Penner scored 25 to 30 goals a year for, what, 6 years?

And he has one bad year (where he was hurt and went through a divorce) and now he's lousy?

lol

Smyth is declining sure. He also is still the Oilers' second best LW, plays the toughs and was fifth on the team in scoring. They rode him way too hard in the first half. Why? Because he's a better option than most of the roster.

Sure Hemsky is injury prone but he played just under 70 games in a season he came off of major surgery. Again, a bad year, but this after a decade as a good player.

You said yourself - a good player.

Do we need better players than these guys? Sure. Ideally Smyth is on the third line. He's still a good player though.

They need more of them. That's all I'm saying.

calgarysucks said...

63 points in 09-10 and he was trending to over 50 in 10-11 before he got traded.

Lazy SOB. SO glad we ditched him for...what exactly did we get for him again? Yeah, I can't remember either.

That trade was the textbook definition of FAIL.


I remember what we got for him. :)

What we got for him was Colten Teubert, a player close to being NHL ready who may be the next Andy Sutton on the blueline - a banger who chips in a fight once in awhile. We also got the Kings' 1st round draft pick that turned into Oscar Klefbom, projected to be a Swedish version of Ladislav Smid.

This trade will look great when Dustin Penner is (again) being overpaid to play on the 4th line and the Oilers potentially have 2 good pieces of the puzzle manning the blue.

Black Dog said...

As an example, read a column in the journal the other day and the first (only) comment said Oilers' forwards were the equal of the Kings and Devils and they only need D and goaltending.

Its why I don't read comments.

Kings' second line is better than the Oilers' first. For now, of course. But this is the case.

Oilers have forever to go. They need NHL players, now.

Black Dog said...

As for the trade, we'll see. If Klefbom is a top four Dman then the trade is a win imo.

But we won't know about him and Teubert for years. Saying its a win now based on their potential doesn't wash. Remember the three first rounders the Oilers got for Smyth.

calgarysucks said...

Penner scored 25 to 30 goals a year for, what, 6 years?

And he has one bad year (where he was hurt and went through a divorce) and now he's lousy?


Penner's goal totals since being an NHL regular for the Ducks and the Oilers was 29, 23, 17, 32, 21....that's not 25-30 a year for 6 years.

Since coming to the Kings, he's had a whopping 9 goals in the regular season in total over 2 seasons and a combined 23 pts in 2 regular seasons....that's complete crap for what he's capable of.

In the playoffs for the Kings over 2 seasons, he's combined for a whopping 4 goals and 13 pts in 26 games....and this playing on a line with 2 much better players this year in Mike Richards and Jeff Carter.

Sorry, BD, but the numbers show you're overvaluing Penner big time. This is a player whose career is obviously on the decline, and the Oilers were right to get rid of him, and got as much as possible for him. I'm just sayin'....

Anonymous said...

Bigger stronger and talented is a good formula, but as you say everyone has to play well to win a Cup.

When the team is playing well, it carries player and these players start playing well.

If you took a couple of players from LA not the A list and put them on the Oilers they would look bad. That is just the nature of a bad team.


The most important position to win a cup is Goaltending get a hot goalie and you can win if your a playoff team.

Bar Qu said...

Most fans drink only whatever the Oilers management tell them to, which is why you have public support for playing hardball with the guy who was toast of the town last summer. Or calling a player lacking in character if he wants to sign with whatever team he chooses instead of the one which drafts him (as mentioned at LT's yesterday). Or heaven forbid, fall to perform to a level they had never demonstrated an ability to achieve before being signing outrageous contacts that were pushed into their laps unasked.

Three Penner thing makes me the craziest. He's never the guy people want him to be, but he never was that guy and he still produces! The prefect 2-3 line guy who is trustworthy in his own end. Gimme a break.

DSF said...

Well Pat, since you referenced me directly,

I think Cam Ward and Fleury qualify as "franchise goaltenders.

I also believe a defense that includes Sergei Gonchar (first round 1992), Brooks Oorpik (first round 2000) might be seen as having a "franchise" defenseman.

I'll grant you that Carolina was an anomaly but that doesn't make the blueprint any less valid.

Black Dog said...

DSF - sorry, don't buy it on Ward or Fleury. Fleury's numbers are middling at best. Had a good run the year they won, just as Ward did in 2006 but what we saw this spring is I think what Fleury is about than not.

As for Gonchar, he's a terrific player but by the time Pittsburgh won he was part of a good defence but no franchise player. And Orpik? Again a guy I like but I'd liken him to Jason Smith (in his prime). Nowhere near a franchise guy.

I think your idea is valid but doesn't stand the sniff test. Especially when it comes to goaltending.

Not to say that the Oilers are close in either area. Both Pittsburgh and Carolina had deep veteran defences.

Black Dog said...

calgarysucks - well if you're going to start pulling out stats!!!

lol

I thought his numbers were better I really did

in any case we obviously don't agree on this which is fine

I think the trade may be a good one down the road if Klefbom becomes a player

and regardless of his struggles Penner still was a top six guy on a Cup winner and would be better than most Oiler forwards

So I think anyhow ;)

Black Dog said...

DSF - btw just realized looking at post title and fact I referenced your comment that it might be construed that I'm directing that at you

Not the case, more of a general comment on the 'Penguins model no Hawks model no Kings model' crowd.

Anonymous said...

Black Dog,

What do you think of this trade?

Edmonton trades their #1 pick for Adam Larsson and NJ 29th pick.

Kovalchuk and Yakupov minus Zach Parise might make sense.

Oilers get a potential #1 Dman which will help Klefbom and could trade their 32nd and 29th pick to move up?

Black Dog said...

anon - no go for me. I like Larsson a lot but they need a guy like Oliver Ekman Larsson or Pieterangelo (I know I spelled that wrong, always do). They need an established young guy not a kid, even one as gifted as Adam Larsson.

I might be persuaded otherwise of the pick were in the top five range but even then probably not.

Black Dog said...

Forgot Detroit on the list of clubs to win without a franchise goalie. So out of seven last clubs to win the Cup, only two with a franchise goalie, four if you are inclined to include Ward and Fleury on that list.

Which I am not.

Anonymous said...

NJ is up to something they must be trading their 29th .

This would have been good year to forfeit their pick

Black Dog said...

That's a great point anon, haven't thought of that at all.

thor said...

Long time reader, first time commenter:

"Get Good Players" is as simple as it gets...and trying to break down every cup win in terms of either the intangibles or the hard numbers will make you mental. It's sports and each year, one team wins it all.

That being said, I like Penner and to his haters I say: two rings. He'll probably add a third before he retires. While slicing and dicing him for his less than 25-30 goals per year for the last six seasons....take a step back and think about that: he has six seasons and two stanley cups. Also, I'd love to know how well he relates to his team mates or what Darryl Sutter says about him. To me, those opinions carry far more weight.

My two bits. Thanks for your writings, Black Dog.

Black Dog said...

thanks Thor