
Ten games in and the Oilers are first in the conference and sitting at 6-2-2. A fantastic start and except for the last two games its been bought and paid for. Of course 4-4-2 is a lot different animal than 6-2-2 but then again early on the Oilers had a couple of games where they outchanced the opposition and didn't get the two points so I'm not going to pick nits here. Is this the best team in the conference? No of course not. Are they a playoff team? Unlikely. They've banked a lot of points at home but they are about to hit the road and my guess is they will find it tougher sledding there. Are they better than everyone figured them for? Yes. I figured them to be ~ 25th or so and I had a lot of people say I was mental even for that. A lot of folks have them pegged for last overall, again.
I was trying to find a post I remembered writing this summer where I was trying to figure out how this club could perform. I finally found it
Here's the key passage:
I think the Oilers will likely be in the lottery next year if they are done with their moves. Too many issues from the blueline on back. Now having said that nothing is a sure thing. Nobody saw the Devils in the lottery last summer and two years ago nobody saw the Avs in the playoffs. Teams will collapse and the Oilers may rise above those clubs and because its sport and luck plays a role you never ever know what can happen. But for the Oilers to be a competitive club this season, for them to make the leap they will need, well, everything to go right.
They will need Dubnyk to become a very good goaltender or for Khabibulin to turn back the clock.
They will need Sutton to turn the clock back two years and for two or more of Petry, Peckham and Smid to take a big leap forward. Gagner too.
They will need Whitney and Horcoff and Hemsky to stay healthy. And pretty well anyone else of value.
They will have to fix the special teams especially the PK because they will likely be in the box a lot.
They need Hall and Eberle and Omark and Paajarvi to improve on their nice starts to their careers. No going sideways. No backsliding. Improvement across the board.
They will need a couple of other kids to step up. Maybe Lander.
They will need some luck on top of all that.
Is it possible? Of course. Anything is. Its unlikely, very unlikely really, but its possible.
Now we're looking at a small sample size here but lets look st these one by one:
They will need Dubnyk to become a very good goaltender or for Khabibulin to turn back the clock.
Probably the story so far. Both goalies have been excellent. Khabibulin shuts the door on Washington on Thursday night. One night later Dubnyk stops forty. Anything you can do I can do better.
They will need Sutton to turn the clock back two years and for two or more of Petry, Peckham and Smid to take a big leap forward. Gagner too.
Sutton has been better than expected. Smid has been wonderful. Petry has been in OKC, Peckham in the pressbox and Gagner has just gotten back from his injury.
They will need Whitney and Horcoff and Hemsky to stay healthy. And pretty well anyone else of value.
lol, well Horcoff has been healthy so far.
They will have to fix the special teams especially the PK because they will likely be in the box a lot.
PK has been outstanding. Rolling three pairs of forwards who know what they are doing, very good goaltending and some pretty good work from the D. Its been night and day compared to last year. And the PP has been better, a lot of puck and player movement, none of this standing around shit. Special teams won the day against the Caps. Last year they were brutal.
They need Hall and Eberle and Omark and Paajarvi to improve on their nice starts to their careers. No going sideways. No backsliding. Improvement across the board.
Hall and Eberle have been very good. Paajarvi has struggled offensively and Omark is in the pressbox.
They will need a couple of other kids to step up. Maybe Lander.
Lander has been a reasonable fourth line option, chipping in on the PK. Petrell and Potter aren't kids per se, but both have contributed, especially Potter. Of course the big story here is Ted, who has been terrific, at least at home. The next few weeks will be a test or the kid but his play has sparked the PP and allowed Renney to play Horcoff and Belanger in tougher minute roles. Huge help.
They will need some luck on top of all that.
Shots for and against were pretty well even until the last two games and then they faced one of the best teams in the league and then the Avs in the second night of a back to back. So I'm not too concerned about where they are at. Again, do I think they are a playoff club? I don't think so but we'll have a lot better handle on how good they are in a ocuple of weeks after this tough road trip.
Its funny though eh? Look at that list above. This is what I figured they needed to be respectable and the reality is a lot of what I felt they needed has not come to pass. Omark and Paajarvi have stalled. Whitney, Hemsky and Gagner have all been hurt. Petry and Peckham have done nothing. Of course Potter has come from nowhere, Smyth and Horcoff (and yes Jones) have been doing the heavy lifting and doing it well and Belanger has added to this club as well. Not to mention Gilbert's excellence.
I guess if you're a glass half full type of guy you look at this team and see Whitney and Hemsky coming back and a bunch of guys yet to get untracked and the reality is they could still get better. Sure the goaltending is not going to be all world and there are going to be some tough nights ahead but I would say they are better than any of us figured them to be. They still need a Dman or two, imo, or at least they need Whitney to come back and stay healthy and Potter to keep it up somehow.
But ten games in things are good. Its been fun and for the most part its been bought and paid for, not smoke and mirrors. So lets enjoy it, yeah?