Thursday, July 28, 2011

Getting There, Drafting 2001-2007


Alright so we have looked at fourteen teams so far - now we are at 'the average' or at least the median line.

Not like this exercise needs a lot of explanation but here it is again. I'm listing the draft picks of all NHL clubs between 2001 and 2007 to see where Kevin Prendergast's work ranks. Lowetide opined that it was average or perhaps even a hair above average. My reaction to that was that if Kyle Brodziak was the fifth best player you drafted during that period then I couldn't see it.

I've excluded lottery picks because KP never had that luxury.

And this is a snapshot. A year from now if Cogliano and Gagner have scored 25 goals, if Petry or Peckham has established themselves as top four D or Dubnyk has clearly become a number one goalie or Omark has blossomed then they're going to move up. If all of these guys or the majority of them become players then KP will look much better. Remember though that all clubs still have kids on their way so they could potentially drop as well.

And of course these rankings are entirely subjective. I look at what I have done so far and I can see where teams may be moved around already. I'm pretty sure that nobody I have listed so far would rank beneath the Oilers though.

Here is the Oilers' list again:


2001 - Hemsky (13), Markannen (133), Pisa (272)
2002 - Deslauriers (31), Stoll (36), Greene (44)
2003 - Pouliot (22), Jacques (68), Stortini (94), Brodziak (214), Roy (215)
2004 - Dubnyk, Schremp (25), Reddox (112)
2005 - Cogliano (25), Chorney (36)
2006 - Petry (45), Peckham (75)
2007 - Gagner (6), Omark (97)

Now on to number 15. Its getting tighter now.

Colorado

2001 - Budaj (63), McCormack (144), Svatos (227)
2002 - Boychuk (61), Gilbert (129)
2003 - Richardson (163), D. Jones (286)
2004 - Wolski (21), Oreskovich (55), Yip (239)
2005 - Stastny (44), Hensick (88), Comiskey (222)
2006 - Stewart (18)
2007 - Shattenkirk (14), Galardi (55)

You might rank the Avs higher for sure. This is a club that always seems to have drafted well. Here you have Stastny who you might compare to Hemsky but while the Oilers drafted Greene, here you have two established NHL defencemen in Gilbert and Boychuk plus a slew of youngsters just establishing themselves and Svatos and Wolski plus emerging power forward Chris Stewart and David Jones who scored 27 goals last season and a slew of Brodziak types and agitators/foot soldiers. No contest.

St. Louis

2001 - McClement (57), Cajanek (253)
2002 - King (190)
2003 - Belle (30), Backes (62), Stempniak (148), Bolduc (127)
2004 - Polak (180)
2005 - Oshie (24), Bishop (85)
2006 - Berglund (25)
2007 - Eller (13), Perron (26)

Not a bad group, the Oilers are close to these guys and could surpass them but at this point St. Louis has the edge with guys like Backes and Perron as well as quality NHLers like Stempniak, McClement and Berglund. Still some possible upside here too with guys like Eller, Oshie and Bishop. Not an amazing group but solid.


Minnesota

2001 - Koivu (6), Wanvig (36), Veilleux (93), Boogard (202)
2002 - Bouchard (8), Harding (38)
2003 Burns (20), O'Sullivan (56)
2004 - Ryan Jones (111)
2005 -
2006 - Sheppard (9), Clutterbuck (72)
2007 -

This group could be a whole lot stronger if it were not for injury issues plus the headfuckery that is POS. It still ranks better than the Oilers although its a group they could pass. But you have two sublime players in Koivu and Burns and Clutterbuck, Sheppard and Bouchard all bring something to the table. And Harding could be a number one guy as well. Shallow but better than the KP group for now.

Pittsburgh

2001 - Armstrong (21)
2002 - Christensen (69), Talbot (234)
2003 - Stone (32), Carcilo (73), Bissonette (121), Moulson (263)
2004 - Goligoski (61), Kennedy (99)
2005 - Letang (62)
2006 -
2007 - Caputi (111), Jeffrey (171)

The Pens have a lot of famous players here because they are a famous team but also you have guys like Armstrong and Carcilo and Bissonette who are all well known for various reasons. This is a group that the Oilers' group may pass fairly easily. Some good players here who helped augment all of those lottery picks - Kennedy and Talbot come to mind - but this is a very close call. What tips it for me is that you have Letang who is just a fantastic talent, Moulson who is a late bloomer who can score a lot of goals and in Goligoski you have a guy who looks to be a legitimate power play QB. Throw in Armstrong and Kennedy and Talbot and this group edges out the Oilers' kids but not by much and I would bet that in a year or two the Oilers pass these guys by the side of the road.

Toronto

2001 - Colaiacovo (17), Pilar (39), Wellwood (134), Bell (65), Harrison (82)
2002 - Steen (24), Stajan (57), White (191), Kronwall (285)
2003 - Mitchell (158)
2004 -
2005 - Rask (21), Stralman (216)
2006 - Kulemin (44), Reimer (161)
2007 - Gunnarson (194)

This is a group that many will likely disagree with, first of all because they are the Leafs (!) and secondly because its pretty damn close and I will concede that you could argue for the Oilers over this list. Like Edmonton you have a lot of guys who have had careers on the fringes and there is no Hemsky here but ... but you have Kulemin who imo is one of the underrated guys in the league (how that happens in Toronto is beyond me), a quality starter in Rask (sure he lost his job to Thomas but he can play) and pretty good players in Steen, Colaiacovo and White. Not too mention Stajan was decent before he went off the rails.

Arguable? Sure it is and this is a group the Edmonton kids could pass easily although in the two goalies and Gunnarson there is some potential as well. But at this point I take Rask, Reimer, White, Gunnarson, Colaiacovo, Steen and Kulemin over the Oilers' lot. Probably not for long but right now, deep breath, yes.

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So that's 19 and I'm sure some folks will disagree with the Leafs and Pens. I believe in the Oiler kids and think they pass a few of these teams but right now this is where I have them. Twenty. Second division, right at the bottom of the middle third.

7 comments:

Lee said...

BD, you can't stop now. I want to see who lands at the bottom of the league. lol

PDO said...

Leaves, Pens, Wings and Pens would be my disagreements.

That'd give you #15 straight up, but of course once you come to talk about ALL picks, the Oilers drafting as a whole falls to well below #20... so meh.

In the same way it is unfair to hammer KP for not getting anyone with a lottery pick, it's also unfair to say "well, he did better than all of these teams who don't get to count any of their first round picks because they were all in the lottery..."

Anonymous said...

And a friendly few words 'ol Georges Laraque

http://michellekenneth.wordpress.com/2011/06/27/guest-celebrity-post-georges-laraque/

Thanks George

signed
still hopeful though

BenJammin said...

How did the Oilers get through that epic 2003 draft and only have Brodziak (traded for a pick) to show for it? Injuries, blah, blah, blah...I know but have you looked at the list!? Even the Rangers, who struck out in the first round, got Dawes in the third. Boston struck ut int he first and got Patrice Bergeron in the second. I think only the Panthers and the Islanders struck out worse.

Schitzo said...

BenJammin: Stortini also came out of the 2003 draft, but obviously his career has gone into a tailspin lately. But yeah, not exactly Kesler or Getzlaf.

Schitzo said...

Pat: Great work. I think one of the conclusions that you can draw from this (which RiversQ has already alluded to) is that you need your top picks to pan out, and then cross your fingers after that.

If the Oilers end up a contender, it won't be because of Hall or RNH - Atlanta, NYI et. al have proven that those players can't do it alone. I would suggest that the outcome depends on picks like Eberle (a home run at 22), Hartikainen (a steal in the 4th), Lander, Hamilton, Marincin, Pitlick, and onward. It's those deeper picks that seperate a contender from an also-ran.

With that said, there's obviously a huge degree of luck involved. Drafting a Keith in the second round (or Datsyuk, or Z, or Shea Weber, or P. Bergeron) is not a part of some master plan by the scouts - it's fate and luck and educated guesswork.

I'm not sure if I'm comforted by that or not... on the one hand, I hate to think that our success is based on a roll of the dice. On the other hand, it's a little comforting knowing that the outcome is pretty much out of Tambo's hands at this point. Given the choice, I'll trust fate.

Black Dog said...

Schitzo - that's exactly it, you need to mine gold after the first. I replied to Riv below, I agree with him slightly, there is luck involved but it seems that the same teams get lucky again and again. And,a s he said, some of that can be because of development I believe. But I also think its scouting. You can't just say its luck or it would all balance out. Wait until you see some of these bottom end clubs. Its fucking terrible. Lee is going to love it. ;)