Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Drafts 2001-2007 Post #2


So, the Prendergast era. Good, bad, how does it compare to how other clubs drafted in the same time period if we put them on equal footing, that is we don't include lottery picks.

As mentioned previously the Oilers are still on the clock with this one and if any number of their kids develop then they might jump up the list. Of course other clubs are in the same situation.

Alright so here's the next grouping. Nine clubs, all quite clear of the Oilers, any way that you look at it, imo.

Nashville

2001 - Hamhuis (12), Tootoo (98)
2002 - Upshall (6)
2003 - Suter (7), Klein (37), Weber (49), Sulzer (92)
2004 - Radulov (15), Rinne (258)
2005 - Franson (79), O'Reilly (150), Hornqvist (230)
2006 - Geoffrion
2007 - Blum (23), Spaling (58)

Nashville would die if it could not draft well and look at this list. Three top pairing Dmen, a fantastic goaltender and a couple of snipers as well as some quality depth and a couple of kids who may really turn into something.

Buffalo

2001 - Novotny (22), Roy (32), Pominville (55)
2002 - Ballard (11), Paille (20), Wideman (241)
2003 - MacArthur (74), Hejda (106)
2004 - Stafford (13), Sekera (71), Kaleta (176)
2005 - Gragnani (87), Butler (96), Gerbe (142)
2006 - Enroth (46), Weber (57)
2007 -

Another club known for its drafting. You might argue for a few others over Les Sabres but we're looking at a whole lot of quality NHL players in this list with more likely to come, one would bet. Not the top end quality of a few teams I have ranked below them but some very good players here.

Washington

2001 - Paetsch (58), Oduya (221)
2002 - Eminger (12), Semin (13), Gordon (17)
2003 - Fehr (18)
2004 - Schultz (27), Green (29), Lepisto (66)
2005 - Tim Kennedy
2006 - Varlamov (23), Neuvirth (34), Perreault (177)
2007 -

Really we're in an area where you could move teams around and I probably would not argue too much. With the Caps you have Semin and Green on this list plus a couple of goalies who look to be starters.

Los Angeles

2001 - Steckel (30), Cammalleri (49), Huet (214)
2002 - Grebeskov (18), Rome (104)
2003 - Brown (13), Boyle (26), Tambellini (27)
2004 -
2005 - Kopitar (11), Quick (72)
2006 - Bernier (11), Lewis (17)
2007 - Moller (52), Simmonds (61)

If Quick or Bernier or both develop then the Kings will rise. Three top notch forwards here plus a goalie who had a number of good years in Huet. Plus some useful guys in Simmonds and Steckel. Quite good.

New York Rangers

2001 - Blackburn (10), Tyutin (40), Murray (79), Zidlicky (176), Hollweg (238)
2002 - Prucha (240)
2003 - Dawes (149)
2004 - Korpikoski (19), Dubinsky (60), Callahan (127)
2005 - Staal (12), Sauer (40), Pyatt (107)
2006 - Anisimov (54)
2007 -

The Rangers have the rap of being lousy at drafting but this is a nice looking list and down the road it may look even better. Staal, Dubinsky and Callahan are three guys I would trade pretty well anybody on the Oilers for, Anisimov may be a player and there is other quality here as well.

That's ten clubs. No doubt that all are better than the Oilers. Other than Hemsky I don't think an Oiler would even rank in the top five of any of these clubs. Maybe Stoll might sneak in on one or two of them.

Boston

2001 - Morrison (19), Alberts (179), Jurcina (241)
2002 - Toivenen
2003 - Stuart (21), Bergeron (45), Thompson (183)
2004 - Krejci (63), Versteeg (134), Hunwick (224)
2005 - Lashoff, Sobotka
2006 - Lucic (50), Marchand (71)
2007 -

Boston with a lot of guys who have established themselves as NHLers albeit bottom pairing or fourth line guys. Also Versteeg, a nice complimentary player on Chicago's run, one of the best two way centres in the game in Bergeron, a top notch offensvie centre in Krejci and two youngsters in Lucic and Marchand who were big parts of Boston's success this past season, especially the latter who may have been Boston's best player in the final.

A lot of folks said Boston's win proved you don't have to draft well to win. Well there's some big pieces of the puzzle here folks.

Detroit

2001 -
2002 - Hudler (58), Fleischman (63), Filppula (95), Meech (229), Ericsson (291)
2003 - Howard (64), Quincey (132)
2004 - Franzen (97)
2005 - Abdelkader (42), Helm (132)
2006 -
2007 -

The Wings have built their team through the draft and for two decades now they have been finding quality in the lower rounds. They have to, seeing as they have been a Cup contender for twenty years, with four Cups and two more trips to the Finals under their belt in that time period. They are not what they once were and when Lidstrom goes one thinks maybe they will fall off - there are three years here where not a player has arrived. Five NHLers from 2002 and five more from the following three though? And Franzen at number 97? I'd take it.

Dallas

2001 - Smith (161), Jokinen (192)
2002 - Stephan (34), Daley (43)
2003 - Eriksson (33), Crombeen (54)
2004 - Fistric (28), Sawada (52), Grossman (56)
2005 - Niskanen (28), Neal (33)
2006 -
2007 - Benn (129)

Down the road this one may rise a bit, especially if Neal and Benn turn out as expected. A lot of good solid NHLers.

Anaheim

2001 - Gerber (232)
2002 - Lupul (7), Brent (37)
2003 - Getzlaf (19), Perry (28), D. Miller (186), O'Brien (250)
2004 - Smid (9)

Really top heavy and nothing after 2004 so far but Getzlaf and Perry alone blow away the Oilers. Good thing really because there's little after that but that's all you really need, they can build the team around these two for a decade.

---------

That's fourteen clubs down and no Oilers yet. Getting closer though.

9 comments:

PDO said...

I'd take the Oiler crop over the Detroit crop... but great stuff Pat, and damn telling.

The scary thing to me is how far down the list the Oilers would be once we tied in lottery picks...

Lowetide said...

Pat,

I'd like to have you on the radio show. Can you email me at nationradio@theteam1260.com and we'll set it up?

Black Dog said...

Thanks PDO.

Yeah if you throw in lottery picks they would really sink, there are a few clubs who are poorer than the Oilers but throw in the lottery picks and they blow them away. I wanted to be fair to KP though. Can't penalize him if he never got a lottery pick I think.

Going away until Monday so won't finish until then but I think my final ranking for the Oilers in ~ 20 or 21. Still a long way to go though before we can really say where they will rank.

Murat said...

I saw your post at LT's where you thought he was flattering Prendergast's record a little bit - kudos to you for taking the time to dig deeper. Great posts so far.

The Fraser -> Prendergast -> Bastard progression has definitely been a good one. Hopefully time vindicates MBS' later round selections and Edmonton gets the supporting cast and/or trade bait it needs.

Murat said...

As for the radio idea: this must happen. It also should probably involve beer. Question though: how many words does Pat know that are safe to use on the radio? :P

RiversQ said...

Hmm... Nope, I'm not buying any of this analysis so far.

I think everyone underestimates how efficient the NHL is at drafting hockey players. The dropoff in the probability of picking a quality player starts immediately and continues right through to probably the third round, after which it's likely all a crapshoot. (Unlike many people I'm loathe to credit late round picks - I think it's mostly luck. They're almost all lottery tickets after a certain point and I have a hard time giving credit for that.)

Furthermore, I think there's little difference between NHL player procurement personnel. I figure the distribution looks an awful lot like the goaltending or coaching distributions in the league - maybe 2-3 truly good ones, 2-3 actual terrible ones and then about 24 teams in a giant tossup in the middle.

I see Prendergast had exactly two picks in the top 15 in seven years. Almost every team in the league outside of Detroit had better opportunity than that. Asking him to succeed in spite of constantly poor pick position is far more difficult than is being credited by anyone I have read to date. I don't think Prendergast was very good, but outside of one or two fuckups like Niinimaki, I'm not convinced he was terrible given the opportunity presented.

RiversQ said...

I forgot to add - I think there probably is some differentiation in player development. Part philosophy, part coaching staff, part infrastructure - whatever it is, that probably has a fair bit to do with teams graduating a few more late picks than others.

Black Dog said...

Riv - well, I agree with you to a point. Player development makes a difference and, as you said, as you go round by round then the odds shrink. Gare Joyce did this in his book as a way of demonstrating that, say, two fourths were equal to a third or something like that. I will look it up and post it.

But I do think that there are certain teams that do a better job than others and I don't think we are talking about a split like you describe. What I am seeing is a lot of teams having success and a lot of teams having no success at all. I really can't ascribe that to luck. Some of it is luck but it cannot all be pinned to that I beleive.

And I can't get down with the Prendergast had no chance to make good theory either. He had five top fifteen picks and the Pouliot pick would have to be considered a quality pick as well based on the draft year.

I think you're being easy on him.

jmo of course

RiversQ said...

Pat, you don't have to go round by round to see the odds shrink. They shrink with almost every pick. You basically admitted this by omitting "lottery picks". I'm suggesting that applies throughout the entire draft and particularly the first round.

Look, i don't think Prendergast was very good, but I also don't think you've presented a compelling argument that he was any worse than average considering his pick position and his organization's dubious player development track record.

Let me put it another way - Prendergast was not the fucking problem. The problem got promoted and hired a bigger fucking problem.

P.S. MacGregor looks to be fine, but the total opposite situation of Prendergast. Tremendous pick position and lots of first round picks. If it wasn't for that stupid Penner offer sheet, they would have had a couple more very good picks.