Friday, July 06, 2007

Holy Mary, Mother of God

My best buddy is a fan of Les Sabres. He may not be buying me a beer this weekend.
Bold move - is it the right one?
Edit - And ... the Sabres match.
Not a dull offseason, that's for sure.
Too me this type of contract is going to become the norm - not the RFA offer sheet, I mean, but the big money for the young guys entering their prime. Makes a lot more sense to give the money to run a guy from 23 to 30 then to give the same amount for a guy on the other side of 30, with the only exception being your big elite guys.


Mr DeBakey said...

Attention All Hands
You may Stand Down
Attention All Hands
Buffalo have matched

And Every team will

But it was fun while it lasted

Big T said...

Not sure if I should be relieved or disappointed. What is the value of those 4 picks? Either way it doesn't matter now, but for future considerations, what are those worth??? What is the worth of any other draft pick?


Black Dog said...

Value of the four picks depends where you are when you're picking.

I think it was a bold move and Vanek is the type of guy who you give a contract like that to.

But, even with Vanek the Oilers were likely going to be in the running for a lottery spot over the next two years - and that is if everyone stays healthy. I mean, look at that D corps.

So is Vanek worth, lets say, a top three pick in 2008, a top ten in 2009, a top 15 in 2010 and another pick in 2011?

Maybe he is. But what if there are two top threes. Or one of those is a number one?

Picks are picks but when you are in lottery territory then it gets dangerous - seven years of Thomas Vanek or possibly ten of Sidney Crosby plus another high pick or two?

Tough one.

Vic Ferrari said...

I'm not as big a fan of Vanek as you are, but I agree with the rest Pat. It would really hurt if Tavares ended up in Buffalo in a year or two.

Jibblescribbits said...

The list of players in the league that are worth 4 first round draft picks:


And that's it. Buffalo's GM bailed out Lowe big time, in my opinion,

PJ said...

I think it was an excellent PR move for the Oilers, both to their disgruntled fans (they're willing to spend the $$) and to next year's UFA crop (they might go crazy and make some lucky guy a multi-multi-millionaire). I don't think that they ever really expected the offer not to be matched.

But on the other hand, doesn't this just end up pissing off the other GMs around the league? And if's K-Lowe's strategy is to re-build via trade, doesn't K-Lowe need those other GMs as willing friendly trade partners? This'll surely push up the RFA contracts league wide.

Anonymous said...

This'll surely push up the RFA contracts league wide.


Less money for other teams to sign UFAs which eventually will sign in Edmonton!

Kyle said...

I'm so glad Buffalo matched, this would have completely obliterated this franchise for years to come. Oilers have a very good shot to be in the Tavares sweepstakes as well as the Doughty sweepstakes. If the Oilers are going to be terrible we might as well get something out of it.

Kyle said...

Oh, and remember what happened to the last GM who tried this...

Big T said...

Still not sure what to think thought Pat. I mean if we had got Vanek would we still be a slam dunk lottery pick??? My guess would be probably not a slam dunk, but perhaps more likely a 6-15 pick with an outside chance for the lottery.

In '09 the Oilers would probably have done a little better with the following years completely up in the air. Too many guys that could quite possibly be gone. Point is, if we're a lottery pick, it's most likely this upcoming season, not the following seasons. Add Vanek and the chances of a lottery pick go down substantially.

I guess the point is mute now and I like the point another poster made (I think on LT's site). What would you be able to get for the Oilers next 4 first round picks? Malkin (probably not)??? Brad Richards (maybe)??? Erik Cole(too much)??? How much???


Black Dog said...

OK, I'm going to make a few references here and correct me if I'm wrong - I'm trying to type and prevent my two kids from lighting the dog on fire so I'm going by failing memory here.

The whole move and whether or not you agree with it depends on your feeling about who is involved. Of course, you say 'well duh' to that, but every single comment made is coloured by three things.

1/ What do you think of Vanek? 40 plus goals at 23 and a plus/minus that's out of sight (and yes, yes, I know - plus minus). And he was facing soft opposition for sure. But here's a guy who slaughtered said opposition. And its not like he's playing with Hull and Howe either. He had decent linemates but I'd think Hemsky would be an upgrade. So, you have a 23 year old who can effect a game as much as your premier ufas, I would say (those being Smyth and Drury). He can't play the tough minutes like they can and I'd rather them right now. But he's seven years younger. Imagine him in three years. I feel comfortable calling him close to an elite guy. Others do not. That's fine.

2/ What are the value of the picks? Remember when the Blues signed Scott Stevens - they gave up, what, five first round picks? Anyone remember those guys? Nope. On the other hand, remember Tom Kurvers? Leafs gave up a first for him - the Devils used it to get soem guy named Niedermeyer. Or the pick the Leafs gave up for Wendel's third ground. Iirc the Isles picked Luongo with that one. So, what do you believe the value of the picks to be? Which leads us to item three ...

3/ How do you think the Oilers will do next year? I think if they stayed healthy and had Thomas Vanek in the lineup they're still a possible lottery team with that D. And what's the chances of them getting away injury free? I think they have two years of sucking and that is with Vanek. So, four picks I could live with if we're talking a 15 and a 17 and then maybe a 22 and a 30 (:)) as the kids mature. But a 1 and a 4 and an 11 and an 18. That might fuck you for good. But you never know - look how the Flyers fell apart this season. What happens to the Canucks if Luongo goes down? Anything can happen and you're right, T. Maybe Lowe adds a couple of cheap Dmen who can play. (Wish he had done so last year). Then things change.

You can see the various opinions here and elsewhere. Some think it was a great thing that Buffalo matched. Others were disappointed.

Lowe may have figured Buffalo would match but he gave it a whirl and good for him (if you're pro-Vanek). As for rival GMS etc, who gives a fuck, really? Apparently there were a lot of offer sheets for Vanek - the Oilers just happened to go really big. In other words, this is going to become more and more common. And you didn't see a lot of people not dealing with the Flyers this past season, despite the Kesler move, right?

I think Lowe called the Sabres' bluff and yes, the PR won't hurt either.

Rex Waverly said...

You have to look deeper into the repercussions of Lowe's offer sheet to truly appreciate what he's done.

He CAN'T escalate the average salary around the league, thanks to the cap. But what he CAN do is help redistribute some of the salary away from the UFAs into the hands of the RFAs.

Here's and example:
The Ranger's signed Drury and Gomez to approx. 7m a year contracts. They were able to do this because of the assumption that Lundquist and the other RFAs would be cheap to pick up. Now, maybe, if Slats knew that offer sheets would come into the picture, maybe he wouldn't have offered that kind of money to just 2 players, and saved some for the others.

Yeah, RFAs may be more expensive, but that means less money for the UFAs. Or else they have to let the RFAs go.

Black Dog said...

But Rex, isn't that an inadvertent result of Lowe's move? I can't see it being part of some master plan he's cooked up with the Queen, Colonel Sanders and the Stonecutters.

Rex Waverly said...

Obviously, I don't know what Lowe is thinking... It may be that he just wanted Vanek. It's possible that he never considered the repercussions of his actions.

But, he does run a NHL franchise; he gets paid to know all the in's and out's of the CBA... And he gets paid a lot more than I make to do it, too.