Tuesday, April 18, 2006

A grain of salt

Regarding the Wings' Presidents Cup winning record, Damien Cox over at the Toronto Star has an interesting breakdown.

In their 24 games against Chicago, St. Louis and Columbus the Wings went 21-1-1-1 for a total of 44 out of a possible 48 points.

Now, I don't think the Wings are paper tigers.

And they had to win those games - its not like they were given the points. If the Oil had picked up points against those teams at that rate they would have won their division, I think. Or close to it anyhow. I don't have the numbers in front of me.

But playing these teams gave the Wings an advantage. Not only in terms of having a weak opposition for 24 games but also not having the mental and physical wear and tear of playing the Flames, Canucks, Avs and Wild over and over again.

Are the Wings a better team then the Oil? Yes, I would say so. Are they that much better? So much so that an Oil series win would be the huge upset that everyone is predicting it would be?

I don't buy it.

This series could end in 4, 5, 6 or 7 games and in favour of either team and I would not be greatly surprised in any case. If the Oil get going in game 1 and Rolo gives them the goaltending they could run the Wings out of the rink. Conversely if the Wings shut the Oil completely down in games one and two we could see a sweep the other way. Its probably going to go six or seven but every playoff season has unexpected results. We'll see what happens this year.

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